National Observatory of Athens Develops Advanced AI Early Warning Systems for Natural Disasters
Athens, April 25, 2026 – The National Observatory of Athens is spearheading a new era in disaster preparedness with the development of pioneering AI early warning systems. These systems are designed to refine forecasts for severe weather events and natural disasters, offering detailed predictions of their consequences before they manifest. This significant technological advancement aims to enhance public safety and mitigate the impact of environmental catastrophes across Greece.
Targeted Deployment in High-Risk Areas
The operational unit of the Observatory, METEO, has already placed four high-risk areas under scrutiny: Thessaly, Rethymno, Penteli, and the Municipality of Athens. Initial results from these targeted deployments have been particularly encouraging, demonstrating the potential of AI to revolutionize disaster management. The focus on these specific regions highlights a strategic approach to address areas historically vulnerable to natural phenomena.
Collaboration for Infrastructure Protection
A crucial collaboration is underway between the National Observatory of Athens and HEDNO (the Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network Operator). This partnership aims to create a digital platform, updated every six hours, that will provide a comprehensive risk analysis for all of HEDNO’s infrastructure nationwide. By leveraging real data and sophisticated weather scenario modeling, this platform will enable timely interventions, such as maintenance work or the underground cabling of vulnerable network sections, thereby bolstering the resilience of critical infrastructure.
Addressing a Growing Challenge: The Increase in Severe Weather Events
As noted by Vaso Kotroni, Director of Research at the National Observatory, Greece has experienced a significant increase in severe weather events since 2000, with a 58% rise from 2013 onwards. This period also saw a 75% increase in human casualties. Alarmingly, 37% of Attica’s forested land has been consumed by fires in the last nine years. In this context, early warning systems that can provide highly localized and detailed forecasts are deemed essential for effective disaster response and prevention.
Pioneering Flood Forecasting in Thessaly
A fully developed AI system for short-term flood forecasting is already operational in Thessaly. Kostas Lagouvardos, Director of Research at the National Observatory and coordinator of METEO, explained that this system combines five years of data from an extensive network of meteorological and hydrological stations. This has allowed for the creation of Greece’s first system capable of providing real-time, near-instantaneous operational assessments of river level changes at selected points within Thessaly’s hydrographic network.
Developed in collaboration with the METEO unit, the Inland Waters division of HCMR (the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research), and with the support of the Region of Thessaly, the system utilizes modern AI techniques. Its models are trained to accurately capture the relationship between recorded rainfall and river level response, directly converting rainfall data into water level forecasts. By continuously incorporating real-time water level measurements, the system improves forecast accuracy and can estimate river levels up to 12 hours in advance, providing vital reaction time for authorities.
A notable real-world test occurred in early April when the Pineios river, at just 20 cm, was accurately predicted by the system to rise rapidly to 5 meters the very next day due to rainfall in Pertouli. It also provided a reliable real-time forecast of level changes for the subsequent 12 hours.
Rethymno’s Comprehensive Early Warning System
A fully operational early warning system is also active in Rethymno. This system incorporates data from seven new meteorological stations and additional measurement instruments, which are processed in real time. This allows for immediate alerts regarding river levels and local air quality, providing crucial information for public safety.
Deputy Mayor Giorgos Skordilis highlighted the system’s importance in an area that experienced significant flood damage in 2019-2020. He also cited its value during a recent Saharan dust episode, where the Municipality of Rethymno was able to issue a public warning thanks to the system, even before the problem was officially recorded, as air pollutant levels exceeded 1,000 micrograms per cubic meter against a threshold of 40-50 micrograms.
Forest Fire Prevention in Penteli and Urban Flood Forecasting in Athens
In Penteli, an early warning system focused on forest fires, utilizing high technology, is also operational. Concurrently, the construction of a forecasting system for the Municipality of Athens is underway. This system will include specialized forecasts for heat stress at specific urban points and will precisely identify areas at risk of flooding. New meteorological stations will be installed across all city neighborhoods to produce tailored forecasts.
Nikos Chrysogelos, Climate and Circular Economy Adviser to the Municipality of Athens, emphasized the importance of transforming these systems into effective decision-making tools to mitigate the consequences of extreme events. He stressed that these specialized instruments can provide information down to the level of a single apartment building, and that alongside adaptation to new conditions, immediate measures to curb the climate crisis are essential.
These advancements by the National Observatory of Athens underscore a proactive and technologically driven approach to natural disaster management, positioning Greece at the forefront of climate resilience efforts.
Source: https://www.tovima.com/science/new-ai-of-observatorys-can-foresee-disasters/
